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PLAIN ENGLISH

Fri, 09/13/2019 - 09:00
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WHAT ARE THE ODDS you will lose your job to a robot? There is a way to assess your risk. According to Brookings Institution, 25 percent of U.S. jobs are at high risk, because 70 percent of the tasks can be done by a machine or a computer algorithm. Thirty-six percent of American jobs are at medium risk because a machine can do 30 to 70 percent of tasks. Forty percent of American jobs are at low risk (less than 30 percent of tasks performed by a machine, robot, or artificial intelligence).

The first wave of automation has already hit, as evidenced by self-checkout at big-box stores. The Target where I shop has gone 100-percent, self-checkout. Lowe’s and Home Depot still have a few cashiers, and seem to know better than to cut back on knowledgeable home-improvement assistants. It’s almost impossible to find anyone to help you at Dillard’s. I do not like self-checkout, so I shop at an H.E.B. grocery store because there is no do-it-yourself checkout.

So, which jobs are safe? Fifty-three percent of American jobs will be safe from automation or artificial intelligence. The jobs that are safe involve personal service, and include:

Hairdressers. Barbers and stylists will not be replaced by machines.

Health care. Doctors, dentists, nurses, physical therapists, mental health and substance abuse therapists, psychologists, and social workers may use more technology, but they will not be replaced by it.

Teachers. Pre-school, K–12, community college, technical school, and university instruction will not be replaced.

Caregivers. Workers who tend to children and the elderly will not be replaced.

Artists. Visual artists, singers, musicians, writers, choreographers, actors, and others in creative fields will remain robot-proof.

First-line supervisors. While manufacturing jobs are at high risk of being automated, the person who runs the production-line machinery will still be needed.

Electricians, plumbers, contractors and highly-qualified craftsmen will be safe.

First responders. Firefighters, law enforcement, and EMTs will not be automated.

The U.S. will not be as hard hit by automation as the world-at-large. McKinsey Global Institute projects that by 2030, 800 million people worldwide will lose their jobs to automation. A third of global workers will have to retrain for new jobs. What will happen to the workers who hold 47 percent of the jobs that will be automated by 2039? They would be smart to begin “re-skilling” (yes, that’s what it’s called) now. In fact, it’s a good idea to keep “re-skilling” until the end of your work life.

Automation is nothing new to the American workplace. Fifty years ago, jobs included telephone operator, switchboard operator, stenographer, door-to-door salesman, department store floor walker, elevator operator, milkman, movie usher, TV repairman, and gas station attendant. One hundred and twenty years ago, 80 percent of jobs were in agriculture, compared to 2 percent today. Ultimately, automation creates more jobs than it eliminates.

In the future, workers will have to be alert to changes and keep updating their skills. Today’s workers can expect to work in a variety of jobs during their lifetime. Taking courses, classes, earning online certifications, and generally investing in oneself will be the new work model.

My town needs a handyman. Four of my neighbors are looking for someone to do small jobs like repairing a chimney crack, re-tiling a bathroom, painting one exterior wall of a rent house, and putting new gravel in a driveway. All potential handymen are long-gone to the oil fields of West Texas. At this point, we are mowing each other’s lawns for want of anyone who does yardwork. We could sure use a handyman robot.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Mary Jane McKinney is the founder and CEO of Grammardog.com LLC, a publisher of grammar exercises. She has used her English degree as a teacher, editor, reporter, and marketing executive. Readers who have questions or comments on this column are welcome to write to the author in care of The Canadian Record, PO Box 898, Canadian, TX 79014, or by e-mail at: fifi@grammardog.com.